Possible Saturday/Saturday night Snow 1/20, Updated 1/21, 1/22 12Z, 1/23 5Z

Here are some snowfall storm totals around our area from the January 23, 2016 Blizzard courtesy of the National Weather Service

NEW JERSEY

…BERGEN COUNTY…
TENAFLY 24.0 1005 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
LYNDHURST 22.0 955 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALLENDALE 21.0 947 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
RIDGEWOOD 18.0 1000 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

…ESSEX COUNTY…
NEWARK AIRPORT 28.1 100 AM 1/24 FAA OBSERVER
WEST ORANGE 24.0 830 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
CEDAR GROVE 19.4 1100 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
NORTH CALDWELL 17.0 800 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

…HUDSON COUNTY…
KEARNY 26.5 1255 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BERGEN 26.3 1100 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
HOBOKEN 26.0 1005 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
HARRISON 25.0 715 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

…PASSAIC COUNTY…
BLOOMINGDALE 22.6 945 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
RINGWOOD 21.7 1115 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

CONNECTICUT

…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…
NORWALK 16.0 950 PM 1/23 PUBLIC

Updated forecast 5Z 1/23:
“Timing” and those earlier “uncertainties” in the forecast are becoming clearer as new observations and forecast information comes in moving the storm along with the moisture and heavy snow-bands about 50 or so miles further north than originally thought. Heavy snows will develop over our area bringing new storm totals ranging in the 14-24 inches. Winds 20-25 mph and possible gusts to 40.

1/22
Forecast:
Low pressure will be moving off the North Carolina coast and redeveloping into a major coastal nor’easter sometime around 1AM Saturday morning.
The current track takes the low north up the coastline and is expected to slow down and position itself off the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday morning and afternoon. Strong blocking Canadian high over Quebec with prevent the low form moving further up the coast, yet close enough to our area to bring some heavy snow and strong winds before ending as it moves away to the NE Saturday Night/early Sunday morning; the skies will be clearing overnight into Sunday morning.
Light snow will be beginning in our area between 12-2AM Saturday and varying in intensity throughout the overnight then becoming heavy at times by daybreak and continuing during the day Saturday. Temperatures will remain in mid-20’s with a strong NNE wind sustained between 15-20 MPH.
We could see gusts to 30 even 35 Mph, but I believe true Blizzard conditions will be confined to the coast, primary from NYC South and east to LI.
Accumulations of 5-9 inches in most areas, but locally more (up to 12+) possible depending on where/if some of the heavier snow bands set-up (thinking more southwest of our area), but may shift further north. Timing is still crucial, if the high over Canada slackens and allows the low to move further up the coast we’ll see higher accumulations and a longer-lasting storm, or if the reverse is true, we see minimal impact.

1/21 update 12Z
Update: based on latest observations and forecast models, forecast uncertainties still exist in the track, amount(s) and start time of the snow.
NAM Guidance-12Z
Snow begins between 9-11am and soon after becoming heavy at times with Rates 1-2 inches per hour. Heavy Snow bands set-up over northern NJ and PA and continues throughout the night as the coastal low slowly moves northeastward away from the DE coastline.
Snow ending around 8AM Sunday morning total accumulations 12-15 inches.
Temperature steady in the mid to upper 20’s and breezy, Blizzard conditions along the NJ coast and LI.
GFS Guidance-12Z
Coastal low begins moving NE away from the VA coastline. Light snow developing early to mid-afternoon and increasing in intensity throughout the day and becoming heavy at times in the evening then ending overnight Saturday as the storm pulls away. Total accumulations 3-6 inches.
Winds N 10-15 Mph with gusts to 20, blizzard conditions along the coast.
Either way Timing is crucial, and both models (as well as others) places us at the northern edge of the precipitation field. With such uncertainties, I’m not yet convinced we will see accumulations higher than 7 inches. So I’m sticking with my 5-9 inch range.

Significant coastal storm and possible snow appears likely this weekend.

Latest 00Z (Thursday) computer guidance models forecasts a deepening shortwave trough and its associated low-pressure strengthening and redeveloping as it dives Southeast-ward out of the Rockies into the southern plains states.  By Friday morning the low is expected to continue strengthening while picking up gulf moisture during its east-northeastward progression across the deep south; arriving just off the North Carolina coastline by early Saturday morning. Deepening is expected at this time as it redevelops into a coastal low bringing moderate to heavy rains across much of the coastal mid-Atlantic states from GA to DE and moderate snow inland (SE OH, VA, WV, inland NC, Southern PA).  The low is forecast to slowly move up the coast and we could see our first flakes sometime mid-day Saturday.  If the current runs are accurate, the snow will become heavier in intensity soon after, however the exact track of the storm is still uncertain and slight deviations to the south or east will significantly reduce our changes for large accumulations.  The opposite is true should the center moves closer. Timing will be a factor, as a blocking high is forecast to develop over Quebec Canada and depending on its position during the time of the storm’s closest approach, it’s possible it could be a factor in redirecting the bulk of the snow out to sea. But, the center of the storm is expected to be off the DE coast by Saturday evening and forecast to slowly move eastward. Heaviest snow and maybe some sleet is expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, temperature remaining in the mid to upper 20’s, and blustery … The snow moves out late Sunday morning.  70% chance total snowfall estimated at this time 5-9 inches.

Winter Storm Jonas Seem From Space

This is what Winter Storm Jonas looks like with infrared and visible imagery from NOAA's GOES-East satellite. (Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project)

Posted by The Weather Channel on Thursday, January 21, 2016

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