Tropical Storm Hermine, currently centered near Nags Head NC with sustained winds around 60 MPH, is forecast to slowly move, almost drift, NNE back over the Atlantic Ocean within the next several hours while potentially re-strengthening to a hurricane. As with many tropical storms/hurricanes, the exact track is still a bit uncertain and subject to change over the next 24-48 hours.
Latest forecast models position Hermine between two high pressure systems (the Bermuda High over centered near Bermuda and another high located over northern Michigan) leaving the storm to slip somewhere in-between on its track to the north. The exact movement and position of these highs could play a major role in the over all track of the storm and any shifts either way will determine whether or not Hermine makes another direct landfall, sit offshore or moves out sea.
12Z Saturday NAM model runs track the center of Hermine about 100 miles off the DE coast by Sunday morning. It will slow down or even stop while taking advantage of light wind-shear and relatively warm sea-surface temperatures. The storm is forecast to peak Sunday night into Monday morning while battering southern New Jersey and the Jersey shore with high winds, heavy rain and a high storm surge for hours (significant and major damage is probably imminent for most of that area); as it rotates back to the west toward the DE/southern NJ coast and then towards the VA coast as it begins to weaken. A weaker Hermine is forecast to sit off the coast for days before moving out later in the week.
As it stands now, other than a few rain bands moving in Sunday evening and Monday, the impacts for our area, and west and north of NYC, are far less intense.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with increasing winds. High 80, winds ENE 10-15MPH gusting to 20
Saturday night: Becoming cloudy, NE winds 10-15 MPH, cool with a low of 62.
Sunday: Cloudy with a slight chance scattered showers later in the afternoon into the evening, with increasing winds, high around 79, winds NE 15-20 gusting to 25 at times.
Sunday Night: Cloudy with a chance of scattered showers, but remaining mostly dry. Low 65 with increasing winds from the NE at 15-20 and gusting to 25mph at times.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and a chance of Scattered showers, some could be moderate to heavy, and breezy..winds NE 15-20 and could gust to 25 at times, High in the lower 70’s
latest visible Satellite images:
Check out the latest storm track courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH