**Late Monday afternoon update revised**
**Blizzard warnings dropped.
**Accumulations being held down by sleet – new storm totals 8-12 inches
**Wind 15-25 with Gusts to 45 mph at times.
**Scattered power outages also a possibility.
**Possible white-out conditions, poor visibility.
A strengthening trough and low pressure will dive across the country over the next several days and redevelop as it affects our area late Monday-night and into Tuesday. This trough/low will move down from the northern plains through the Midwest and the southeast Sunday and Monday. Moderate snow is forecast for much of the northern plains and central Midwest states as moisture from the storm moves through. During its approach toward the Southeastern states, the low will begin weakening and eventually phase-out as it begins interacting with a coastal low moving up the southeastern shoreline Monday Night. This coastal low is forecast to rapidly intensify while moving up the Carolina and VA coastlines overnight Monday.
The exact position, location and track of the low is still a bit uncertain as it begins moving into the area, but light to moderate snow will start falling around 2-4 AM and quickly become heavy towards daybreak. If the low moves up farther east and offshore, we can expect moderate to heavy snow for much of the day on Tuesday with accumulations (early estimates) of ~4-8 inches.
A closer approach, with the center tracking over NJ or just offshore, will shift the heaviest precipitation (snow) further west into our area most of the day on Tuesday and at times, the snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. But this same scenario could also bring in slightly warmer air. This may be enough to allow for some mixing with wet-snow and sleet for a very brief period of time as the approaches, but colder air will be drawn back down as the low continues offshore and up the coast. Heavy snow will will tapering down Tuesday night as the Nor’easter moves into New England. Blowing and drifting of snow is possible along with a flash or two of lightning. Estimated snowfall amounts of 15-18 inches possible if no mixing occurs.
Winds will also increase from the NE at around 15-20 mph with gusts to up to 30 MPH. Temperatures will be in a few degrees either side of 30 degrees and wind chills in the teens and 20’s.