Watching Jose – Monday Afternoon Update – Maria Update later this week.

Now that Jose has completed it’s clockwise circle over the Atlantic and weakened some in it’s own wake, it has resumed it’s NNW movement toward the Eastern US coastline. Jose has also returned to minimal Hurricane strength (CAT 1)as it moves up, and although not forecast to make a direct landfall in our area, it is likely to approach close enough where we could experience some impacts. Regardless, the Jersey Shore and other Beach ares will be affected the most. Some Flooding, gusty winds, rough Surf and coastal beach erosion is likely in those spots.

The first showers may hit our area tomorrow morning near daybreak into mid-morning. Some moderate rain and gusty winds are likely associated with these bands, but the strongest of the winds and heaviest of the rains will be confined to the immediate coast and mostly offshore.

Tuesday: Becoming cloudy, showers possible throughout the day. Winds could pick-up during times of heavy showers, but remaining steady from the NNE at 17-23 MPH, then backing to the North and NW overnight Tuesday in Wednesday morning. Some gusts to 25 mph are possible.

Jose is expected to move north (off shore) during the day tomorrow and make its closes approached by late afternoon. The center will be ~325 or more miles out. Once again the greatest impacts to our area will be along the immediate shore as Jose makes another clock-wise “loop” out over the ocean.

Then as it moves closer in later in the week, it will continue only to batter the shore with rough surf.

Infrared Satellite loop:

Infrared Satellite loop – Source Intellicast

Tropical Cyclone Tracking:

Tropical Cyclone Tracking – TPC Guidance – Source Intellicast

Map of the Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and disturbances – Source National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center puts out a probability forecast track…with a “cone” of uncertainly.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center – Source National Hurricane Center

Older:

We’ve all seen the devastating destruction and flooding resulting from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma; the images seen on TV are truly unbelievable and heartbreaking. The damages from Irma alone could well exceed 40 Billion dollars and easily set the record as the most expensive natural disaster in America. The costs from Harvey are not too far behind. Needless-to-say it’s been quite a season so far and we’ve only recently passed the climatological peak (Sept 9th) of hurricane season, so not only is there a long way to go, it appears like the tropics may not be done with us just yet.

1. Will it stay out to sea away for the Eastern US Coast line?
2. Will it gain strength and move to the NW …brushing the NC coastline before re-curing to NE and out only to provide the Jersey Shore with high surf and beach erosion?
3. Will is slam into coastline somewhere in the East?

At the moment guidance models offer a variety of solutions, but ultimately it will depend on timing and some key features to help steer this storm along. The high pressure centered over the Western NY/PA boarder, and providing us with nice dry cool sunny conditions is expected to move east and out to sea over the next few days while the remnants of Irma will interact with a shortwave trough. This trough will force and move what’s left of Irma to our area as only some scatters showers and perhaps a period of light rain later this week. Meanwhile Jose will be spinning several hundred miles off the SE coastline. High pressure to it’s NE over the Atlantic is forecast to strengthen and slowly sink to the east and southeast of Jose. If the timing is correct, this high will act as a block high and prevent the Hurricane from moving to the east and out to sea. At the same time the trough and associated low-pressure (a part of which is left over from Irma) will lift out of our area and to the NE. During this time, Jose may make its way up the coast toward the eastern seaboard, but it’s still too early to know for certain.

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