Major Coastal Storm (Nor’easter) likely Sunday, Sunday into Monday

Revised with new storm track:

We’ve been enjoying a very late and long stretch of unusually warm weather over the past month or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if October 2017 goes down as the warmest October ever recorded. It’s also been a very dry month. In fact, the very little rainfall we’ve received lately has put most of the state in a low-level drought (according to the US Drought monitor)

“D0 (Abnormally Dry)” areas of NJ – Courtesy United States Drought Monitor website

Current CT Drought Conditions. – US Drought Monitor Website

High Pressure over North Carolina building in and and moving to the E will be providing us with dry and cool conditions Friday and most of Saturday.

A powerful shortwave trough over the northern central plains states will be deepening as it builds in and moves northeast. Resulting Low over west central WI is forecast to bring moderate to heavy snow to MN and most of Northern WI. As High pressure moves out of our area late Saturday, a piece of this trough will swiftly move in a become negatively tilted Sunday into Sunday night. The interaction between the approaching cold front form the west and a weaker low moving in from the south could result in the development of a major coastal storm Sunday and Sunday night.

*Timing of the arrival of trough and formation of the coastal low is crucial as any as any deviation in it’s current forecast track by 50 miles east or west will have significant differences in rainfall and wind for our area.

*Cold front will be moving from West to east and is forecast to approach our area by Sunday night. Ahead of it, a line of showers and thunderstorms are possible and could affect our area early Sunday morning.

Friday: Mostly Sunny and pleasant. High temp 65, light west winds becoming southerly 5-10 mph.
Friday Night: Clear , low temp 44.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and becoming partly to mostly cloudy later in the day. South winds increasing to 15-20 MPH and could gust to 25. It will be mild with a High of 71.

Saturday Night; Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and some drizzle. Remaining mile with overnight lows in the lower and mid 60’s

Sunday: Scattered showers in the morning becoming more widespread during day…A thunderstorm is possible. High temperature near 65. Breezy, southeasterly winds around 15 MPH.

*Sunday Night…Depending on the track of newly formed coastal low:

New Storm Track up the coast and through the NYC area: – Sunday night into Monday: Rain heavy at times accompanied by strong winds at 25-35 MPH and some wind gusts could exceed 40 mph. Localized flooding (especially along the coast) and some power outages likely along with down tree limbs and branches . Rain and scattered showers continues into Monday morning, with a west at 17-23 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH . ~3 inches of needed Rain possible.

Looking less likely…Storm track further east and though Cape Code: will also provide a period of moderate to heave rain Sunday into Sunday/night into Monday morning with lesser amounts. Winds from North and backing to the NW at 15-20 MPH (gusts to 25 MPH) before moving and clearing Monday during the rush. Winds remaining strong out of the West-northwest @ 15- 25 MPH. – total rainfall ~ 1.20 inch of needed rain.

Regional Radar Loop – Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Current Surface Analysis Loop – Source Intellicast

Regional Surface winds – Source Intellicast

Live Camera view – Source Maywood NJ

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